2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Brick)
The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season was an above average season in the Atlantic, due to cool nuetral conditions forming after the El Nino from the previous year dissipated, as well as the return of a +AMO horseshoe. The official dates that delimit tropical cyclone activity are June 1st- November 30th, although cyclones can form anytime of year. The season featured the latest start to a season since 2014, with Andrea forming in June. The season was fairly strong, with 18 named storms forming, with half of those, 9, becoming hurricanes, and 5 of those becoming major hurricanes (category 3 or above). Overview June and July August September October and November Storms Tropical Storm Andrea A large gyre formed over Central America on June 11. A few days earlier, a tropical wave had moved off the coast of Africa. Early on June 12, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) marked the system for a medium chance of development over 2 days (40%), as the wave was expected to interact with a Gyre, and form a low pressure system. On June 13, the wave began to interact with the gyre, and formed a disorganized low pressure system later that day. The low pressure system moved slowly north, and was marked as Invest 90-L on June 14th, with a recon flight scheduled for the next day. Overnight, the system rapidly organized, and satellite estimates showed the system had become a tropical depression. At about 5:00 AM EDT, the NHC designated the system as Tropical Depression One, just the west of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The depression was moving slowly northwest, and was dumping rain on the Yucatan Peninsula, causing major flash flooding. On June 16, the system turned sharply northeast. Shortly after, recon flew into the center of One and discovered winds of 35 kt. With that data, the NHC upgraded One into Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the 2019 season. Andrea was also the first "A" storm not to form before June since Andrea 2013. As a result, Tropical Storm Warnings were issued from Key West to Fort Myers, Florida. Andrea was on an unusual path for June, due to odd steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico. Andrea continued to move north-north east towards southern Florida. The system was becoming rather large, and the rainbands began to stretch to Cuba, which caused even more flooding problems. Havana reported up to 5 inches of rain. On June 17, Andrea got slightly stronger, and rainbands began to move onshore Florida. Several tornadoes began to spawn, causing some damages. Flash flooding also began to occur, disrupting rush hour traffic in southern Florida. Several government buildings and businesses began to shut down. As the sun set,recon found that Andrea had peaked with winds of 50 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1001 millibars. Shortly after this peak, Andrea's center came ashore at about 1:00 AM EDT on June 18, near Flamingo, Florida. Gusty winds began to knock out power to thousands of people, leaving entire towns in the dark. Andrea also produced a 3 foot storm surge along the coast, which caused some beach erosion. Andrea slowly crossed the Florida peninsula, which in turn caused major flooding. Law enforcement and rescue crews reported over 52 water rescues on June 18th alone. Up to 3 feet of water entered some houses, due to a backed up drainage system. Andrea also caused a strong EF1 tornado in Miami, which was reported to have ripped the roof of an apartment complex. Andreas convection began to wane as it moved off of Florida and into the cold waters near the Bahamas. Andrea quickly weakened to a tropical depression and turned sharply northeast. Andrea's west side was completely sheared off by wind shear, and mid day on June 19th, Andrea turned extratropical, and the NHC terminated advisories. Andrea caused $200 million dollars and damages, and killed 4 people. Tropical Storm Barry On July 5th, a weak tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa. The wave moved through Cape Verde, causing heavy rains to fall on the islands. Initially, the wave was supposed to be killed by dry air the Main Development Region (MDR), and was marked for a low chance of development by the NHC. However, unexpectedly, the dry air became less dominant on July 6th, and the wave began to organize. As the wave moved slowly west, the NHC upped the odds to 50%, as the wave developed persistent convection around the center. However, satellite passes showed no closed circulation. The wave was marked as Invest 91L late on July 6th, and on July 7th, the NHC upped the odds of development to high. Around the same time, the wave attained winds of 35 kt. Early in the morning on July 8th, an ASCAT pass revealed the wave had a well defined closed circulation, and the NHC issued its first advisory on Tropical Storm Barry at 5:00 AM AST. It was moving northwest. Barry was at first forecast to peak at hurricane status as it neared the Lesser Antillies. However, models began to predict dry air would kill off the storm by the 11th, and at the 5:00 PM AST advisory, the forecast peak was dropped to 50 mph. Barry turned to the west early on July 9th, and into a pocket of favorable condtions, and as it moved slowly across that pocket, it reached a peak intensity of 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 998 millibars late on July 9th. It maintained this peak until about 11:00 AM AST on July 10th, where dry air began to enter the system and choke off any strengthening. As a result Barry began to weaken as more and more dry air entered the system. As the sun set, satellite imagery showed that Barry's center had become exposed, and at 11:00 PM AST, Barry was downgraded to a tropical depression. By early the next morning, satellite estimates showed Barry had opened up into a wave, and the last advisory on Barry was issued at 5:00 AM AST. Barry's remnants did bring enhanced moisture and heavy rainfall to the Lesser Antillies just few days after it opened up. The remnant completely dissipated on July 16. Barry did not cause any damages or deaths. Tropical Storm Chantal A low pressure system detached from a cold front off the South Carolina on July 15. The system was given a low chance of development by the NHC that day. However, the unfavorable condtions that were orginally expected failed to develop, and chances were upped later that day. On July 16, the system began to turn northeast over the warm and favorable waters of the Gulf Stream, and acquired tropical storm force winds. The NHC upped the chances to high, and scheduled recon for early the next morning. When recon flew out early July 17, and discovered that the system had developed into Tropical Storm Chantal. Chantal had an abnormaly high pressure when it formed, at 1013 millibars. This would be a trend throughout its entire life time. Initially, Chantal was moving slowly northeast and struggled to intensify. On July 18, Chantal turned sharply east and then finally began to intensify. That day, one man drowned in Virginia Beach after rip currents brought him out to sea. Chantal was forecast to become a hurricane by July 20th. On July 19th, Chantal turned northeast, and hit a peak intensity of 60 mph and 999 millibars. Chantal was still expected to become a hurricane. However, on July 20th, unseen steering factors turned Chantal northwest, over cold waters. Chantal then began to become enlongated and started to turn extratropical. Early on July 21, Chantal became extratropical. Chantal caused 1 indirect death and no damages. Tropical Storm Dorian On July 31st, a tropical wave moved off of Africa. It passed through the Cape Verde islands early on August 1st, and caused some light flooding, and moved off the islands shortly afterwards. At first, the NHC gave it a low chance of development. As it continued across the Atlantic, conditions in the Caribbean began to look more conducive for development, and the NHC upped chances to medium, and the wave was designated Invest 95-L. However, dry air in the MDR prevented any organization in that region. Late on August 3rd, the wave entered the eastern Caribbean, with the center passing near Dominica, causing heavy rains, which resulted in minor flash flooding. The wave slowed down that evening as well, and began to organize over the warm waters of the Caribbean, which was the most favorable it had been in several years. Over August 4th, the wave became a lot more organized while it was south of Hispanola. A recon flight was scheduled for early the next morning. When recon flew into the Invest, they discovered 30 kt winds, and a closed circulation. At 5:00 AM EDT, the NHC issued its first advisory on Tropical Depression Four, while it was located southeast of Jamaica. Four was moving northwest, and was slowly becoming more organized. Its outer rainbands clipped the coast of southern Jamaica, causing some rainfall, including downpours that caused street flooding. Late that day, recon observations found winds of tropical storm force in Four, resulting in the NHC upgrading the depression into Tropical Storm Dorian, the fourth named storm of the season. Early on August 6th, tropical storm watches were issued for the ntire eastern coast of Cuba. The rainbands of Dorian moved onshore in Jamaica, causing heavy flooding rains on the island. Roads were shut down as water got too high to be considered safe. Late in the day, Dorian turned northwest, and recon indicated 50 mph winds. Early on August 7th, Dorian curved northeast, as predicted, and began to head for Cuba. Warnings were issued for the same areas the watches were in effect for, essentially replacing them. Dorian became stronger as it began to head over favorable conditions, and at the end of the day, recon found winds of 60 mph, and hurricane force gusts. Forecasters thought that there was a chance that Dorian could rapidly intensify into a hurricane, and issued hurricane watches for the area. Dorians outer bands moved onshore Cuba late on the 7th, where the first problems caused by the storm. Heavy downpours flooded major roads, shutting down regular traffic in that town. Some towns completely shut down. Early on August 8th, Dorian peaked with winds of 65 mph. Just hours later, Dorian made landfall west of Manzanillo, Cuba at peak intensity. Wind gusts of hurricane force knocked out power to several areas, and a storm surge of 5 foot flooded costal homes and inland flooding flooded several more. Inland, Dorian also spawned tornadoes in extreme eastern Cuba, adding on to power outages and wind damages. After causing some damages in Cuba, Dorian moved back into the Atlantic ocean late on the 8th. Dorian moved into the eastern Bahamas on August 9th and turned sharply north. Conditions weren't favorable, and Dorian began to weaken. Dorian moved northwards and dumped heavy rain on the Bahamas, which slightly harmed the tourism industry. However, Dorian quickly moved out of the Bahamas, and then began an extratropical transition. ON August 10th, the NHC declared Dorian post tropical. Dorian killed 12 people, and caused $150 million dollars in damages. Tropical Depression Five Hurricane Erin Tropical Storm Fernand Hurricane Gabrielle Hurricane Humberto Hurricane Imelda Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Storm Karen Hurricane Lorenzo Hurricane Melissa Hurricane Nestor Hurricane Olga Tropical Storm Pablo Category:Future hurricane seasons Category:Future Atlantic Season Category:Future Atlantic Seasons